
17
Value and Indexed Property Income Trust PLC
• Annual Report and Financial Statements 2025
Retail: An under the
radar resurgence
Retailers have to navigate challenging
market conditions with persisting
inflation, low consumer confidence
and low retail sales volumes. But
activity levels across prime retail
markets remained surprisingly
resilient throughout 2024, with
valuers reporting modest rental
growth in some places. In recent
years most investors have passed
the sector over, with many expecting
the adoption of online shopping to
continue eating away at the need
for physical retail spaces. Some
retailers have upsized, opened
flagship stores, plus there have
been new international brands
entering the UK in 2024. Retailer
distress is at historic lows, vacancy
rates are broadly stable, and while a
few big names have tumbled – Ted
Baker, The Body Shop, Carpetright
and Homebase – 2024 has been
relatively uneventful for closures,
but WH Smith and Poundland
now have doubtful futures.
Values and pricing levels have
been relatively stable on the high
street as there has been no real
market evidence, but the out of
town sector has been more active.
Retail investment volumes have
slowed down with the February
figure below the five-year monthly
average of £680m. The year-to-date
total of £620m is 40% below the
corresponding 2024 figure. In one of
February’s largest transactions, Tesco
bought back its Newmarket store
from Supermarket Income REIT for
£64m at a 5.5% yield.
However, over the twelve months
to March 2025, retail was the best
performing sector on the MSCI UK
Monthly Property Index with a total
return of 11.4% v 8.5% for All Property
driven by a high income return of
7.2% (All Property 5.9%) and capital
growth (3.9% v 2.5%). This is despite
retail rental value growth at 1.8%
underperforming All Property at 3.4%.
High Street and Shopping Centres
:
While retail sales volumes remain
subdued, a sustained focus on re-
aligning retail footprints to match
post-Covid shopping habits has
helped return confidence to the
occupational market. High street
retail has been evolving where it
is now more Leisure and Food &
Beverage focused. The top centres
continue to attract significant
interest from large multi-national
retailers and leading brands, whilst
improving levels of footfall are
helping to attract new occupiers.
According to MSCI, the vacancy rate
for institutionally held shopping
centres, representing a broad
range of asset sizes and qualities,
contracted during 2024 falling to
11.1% of floorspace. For best-in-class
locations void levels have continued
to reduce. The shopping centre
market saw some recovery during
2024, with total volumes exceeding
£2bn as a result of over 40 deals, with
the bulk being UK institutions buying
out partners in the larger regional
centres. In Q1 2025, several centres
have been brought to the market as
investors are attracted by the high
income returns. Investor demand
for the high street, even in strong
south east locations, remains very
limited with most transactions only
taking place at double figure yields.
Supermarkets
: Supermarket
performance during 2024 was driven
by income return with only modest
capital growth. There continues
to be a lack of quality stock being
brought to the market with strong
institutional demand for the £20m
to £40m lot sizes let to Tesco and
Sainsbury’s and smaller stores let
to Marks & Spencer, Aldi and Lidl.
Investor sentiment towards Asda and
Morrisons continues to be weak.
Aldi’s sales grew by 5.6% year on year
in the 12 weeks to 23 March, pushing
its market share to 11% for the first
time, up from 10.7%. Lidl’s sales grew
by 9.1% in the same period, pushing
its market share to 7.8%, up from 7.4%
a year ago. Lidl attracted 385,000
additional shoppers last month, more
than any other grocer, and saw a
double-digit rise in footfall.